As we prepare for the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season (August through October), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC)–a division of the National Weather Service–is predicting that this year’s hurricane activity will be above-normal.

The CPC is predicting:

• 12-18 named storms (winds 39 mph or higher), of which 
• 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds 74 mgh or higher), including: 
• 3-6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; winds 111 mph or higher).

There are, however, several factors of uncertainty to consider for this outlook:

• Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for the development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
• Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average. 
• Predicting El Niño and La Niña impacts is an ongoing challenge. 
• It's difficult to know for certain if a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived, greater intensity storms. 
• Unpredictable weather patterns can develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity. 

What does this mean for the average person?

Basically, from June through December (hurricane season officially ends November 30, but in periods of increased activity, storms can and have occurred past that date) we must be aware of hurricane threats and be prepared to take protective actions that could save lives. Most coastal communities have emergency management agencies that have hurricane preparedness plans and maps showing areas that could be inundated by a land-falling storm. These plans are supported by scientific data developed and provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Dewberry supports this effort by developing technical data and decision assistance tools to help decision makers make better informed decisions during periods of hurricane activity.

Historically, inland flooding caused by excessive rainfall associated with a hurricane or tropical storm has been the leading cause of death in tropical cyclone events. However, storm surge also causes many deaths and this trend has been increasing in recent years. Determining your location in relation to the potential storm surge inundation areas in the community is critical. Contact the local emergency management office in your community to determine if your home is located in a surge or evacuation zone.